In defense of Ukraine

By Ivo Daalder

The West has to act now, or Russia’s assault will be irreversible.

Unless Europe and the United States act swiftly, the situation in Ukraine is about to get worse — possibly a lot worse. The Minsk II agreement that was supposed to stabilize the conflict and provide a path forward to political settlement is languishing as a result of repeated violations and unenforceable terms. Any hope Vladimir Putin had of economic sanctions being lifted were dashed by the EU decision this week to extend the regime for another six months.
Despite a year of sanctions and deteriorating relations with Europe, President Putin continues to do what he can to prevent Ukraine from deciding its own future. A renewed Russian military offensive now appears to be in the offing. Russian forces are once again massing at the border with Ukraine, and Russian troops and heavy equipment have continued to flow into eastern Ukraine. Russian forces have been training Moscow-backed separatists for months. All is set for a rapid military advance — most probably to take the strategic port of Mariupol and the remainder of the Donbass region, though further advances towards Odessa and possibly the creation of a land bridge to Crimea cannot be excluded.
Ukraine is singularly ill-prepared for another major military confrontation. Its forces are exhausted after more than a year of conflict. It lacks the training and the equipment to offer a strong defense, especially if Russian forces participate directly. It has lost every decisive battle so far. It’s very unlikely to do better the next time.
Another major military escalation in Ukraine would be devastating for the country. Kiev does not have the economic resources for a short war, let alone a long one against well-equipped and trained forces. Even without direct confrontation, Ukraine faces extraordinary challenges in reforming its economy, managing its growing debt, and paying its bills. Economic output has already fallen by nearly 20 percent this year, and another major military conflict would cost the country dearly.

The focus should not be on what to do if Putin does move, but how to deter him in the first place.

The consequences beyond Ukraine of a renewed escalation would be equally profound. Any major military actions would leave the Minsk process in tatters. The divisions in Europe would harden further; Russia would become even more isolated. Security in Europe would continue to deteriorate, and the militarization of relations between Russia and the West would intensify. Nominal success in Ukraine could encourage additional Russian military action in Georgia, Moldova, or even against the Baltic states.
The dangers are real, which makes it imperative that the major western countries do whatever they can to prevent Putin’s next military move against Ukraine. The focus should not be on what to do if Putin does move, but how to deter him in the first place. That will require renewed focus, urgency, and determination — something that has been lacking so far. Rather than warning of further sanctions if Putin escalates, the United States and Europe need to spell out specifics — for example, banning Russian banks from participating in the SWIFT mechanism, which manages international banking transactions, and halting all exports of technologies for the Russian oil and gas industry.
The Western powers should also be clear that if the conflict escalates, they will be prepared to provide defensive lethal support to Ukraine — including drones, secure communications, reinforced troop carriers, long-range counterbattery radar, and anti-armor weaponry. While not enough to turn the tide of a major confrontation, such weaponry would help Ukraine impose significant cost on Russian forces and on the separatists Moscow is enabling to fight.

In addition to threats of economic and military countermeasures, there needs to be a major new diplomatic push aimed not just at any escalation, but at trying to settle the conflict.

In addition to threats of economic and military countermeasures, there needs to be a major new diplomatic push aimed not just at any escalation, but at trying to settle the conflict. This requires direct U.S. and British involvement. Their absence from the most important security negotiation in Europe is historically unprecedented; they now need to join Germany, France, Russia, and Ukraine in an effort to find a lasting solution.
Such a solution must restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity, full sovereignty, and independence, create an agreed process for internal political reform and decentralization, strengthen economic relations with Ukraine, and end the sanctions regime. It likely will require the deployment of an outside peacekeeping or stabilization force — to ensure heavy weapons are withdrawn, all foreign forces return home, irregular forces are disbanded, the Russian-Ukrainian border is secure, and conditions for conducting free and fair elections of local authorities in eastern Ukraine are in place.
Agreement along these lines is of course not assured. To have any chance of success, presidents and prime ministers of the six countries most directly involved would need to meet in the next few days or weeks to launch a serious negotiating process and forestall any further military escalation. The initial focus needs to be on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine, though larger issues, including the status of Crimea, would need to remain on the agenda.
The situation in Ukraine, and throughout Europe, is dire. It requires the attention and direct involvement of the heads of those countries that have led the effort to secure Europe for so many years. There is no time to waste.