Tuesday, July 14, 2015

What’s in the Iran agreement

By Nahal Toosi


Without the high status of a treaty, this pact could easily unravel over the next decade.

It’s probably one of the longest, most complicated “to do” lists the international community has seen in a while.
The Iran nuclear agreement, announced early Tuesday, runs more than 150 pages and provides Iran with relief from oil, financial and other sanctions in return for limiting its nuclear production capabilities and stockpile.
The document includes highly technical sections covering everything from how many centrifuges Iran can have to the voting procedures of the panel overseeing the accord.
It’s the type of document that will give both critics and supporters plenty of ammunition, and it could be a game-changer in the Middle East, and maybe even in America’s relations with Iran. Yet it doesn’t even have the high status of a treaty and could easily unravel over the next decade.
Here are some of the key provisions:
  • Iran agrees that “under no circumstances” will it “ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons,” but it retains its right to peaceful nuclear energy under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. In return, the United Nations, the European Union, the United States will lift a slew of nuclear-related sanctions on Iran, including those that targeted its financial sector. The plan is to lift the sanctions step-by-step as Iran completes a series of actions to dismantle much of its nuclear program. The day both sides have fulfilled their commitments is being referred to as “Implementation Day,” which could be many months from now.
  • Iran has to take several steps to curb its nuclear program, including reducing the number of centrifuges it operates to enrich uranium by about two-thirds to 5,060. Tehran will be allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67 percent and will reduce its stockpile of such uranium by 98 percent to 300 kg for at least 15 years. The country also must convert its enrichment facility at Fordow to a “nuclear, physics and technology center” and redesign its Arak heavy water reactor so that it does not produce weapons-grade plutonium. But Iran will be allowed to keep up some of its research work, and after 8 1/2 years it will be allowed to start testing up to 30 advanced IR-6 and IR-8 centrifuges. This is a concern for critics of the deal, who say that Iran’s ability to use advanced centrifuges will mean it can much more quickly build a nuclear weapons once the deal’s various provisions sunset.
  • The United Nations arms embargo against Iran, which was leveled because of its nuclear program but also covers conventional weapons such as tanks and aircraft, will be lifted as part of the agreement. But, according to President Barack Obama, restrictions on non-nuclear weapons will remain for at least five years, though it was not immediately clear where that was mentioned in the document. Sanctions related to ballistic missiles on Iran will remain for at least eight years, Obama said. Iran had argued that because the U.N. embargo was imposed due to its nuclear program, it had to be lifted as part of any deal. The U.S., however, insisted on keeping some restrictions because it does not want to see Iran gain access to additional conventional weapons because of its role in the turmoil in the Middle East. The arms embargo became a major sticking point as the negotiations neared the end, and the exact language related to it could become a point of friction in Congress, which gets to review the deal.
  • Iran has agreed to follow through with a “roadmap” to work with the International Atomic Energy Agency (the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog) to address issues related to its past alleged research on nuclear weapons, the so-called “possible military dimensions.” Iran has to meet its commitments under this plan by mid-October, and the IAEA chief must offer an assessment by mid-December, a relatively quick timeline. The IAEA also will have significant access to Iranian sites to monitor whether the country is meeting its commitments under the broader nuclear deal, including “monitoring of uranium ore concentrate produced by Iran from all uranium ore concentrate plants for 25 years.”
  • The deal will be overseen by a joint commission whose members will include Iran, China, France, Germany, Russia, Britain, the United States; an EU representative will also be involved. The commission will play a key role in resolving disputes over whether Iran or the six world powers are violating the agreement. If, for example, the U.S. believes that Iran is committing a violation, it can refer the issue to the commission in a procedure that has time limits and which can then expand to include an advisory board and the various foreign affairs ministers of the countries involved. Ultimately, if a dispute is not resolved through these bodies, it can be sent to the U.N. Security Council. The twist in the role of the Security Council is this: to help resolve the dispute, the council must vote on a resolution to continue lifting the sanctions. That means that if the U.S. wants to reimpose sanctions on Iran, it can veto that resolution. The complicated set up is designed in part to prevent China and Russia, which are already looking toward Iran as an alluring trading partner, from vetoing any “snap-back” of the sanctions.

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