War games raise risk of Russia-NATO conflict

By Vince Chadwick

Study looked at maneuvers this year involving thousands of military personnel.

Supposedly defensive military exercises by Russia and NATO are actually leading the two sides closer to war, according to a new report by the European Leadership Network.
The think tank’s policy brief released Wednesday analyzed their major military exercises this year and found that “each side is training with the other side’s capabilities and most likely war plans in mind … Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO, and NATO is preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia.”

The Network looked at a Russian ‘snap exercise’ involving 80,000 military personnel in March, and the NATO Allied Shield exercise in June that combined 15,000 troops from 22 countries on the alliance’s eastern flank.
Each side trained in regions most exposed to attack by the other, with NATO concentrating on the Baltic States and Russia focusing on the Arctic and High North, Kaliningrad, Crimea, and its border region with NATO members Estonia and Latvia.
Russian exercises included defending the main headquarters of the Northern Fleet in Murmansk from saboteurs, and more than 30 interceptions of enemy aircraft over the Barents Sea.
The war games began in the High North but quickly spread across the entire country, leading ELN to conclude “the scale of this exercise means it could only have been a scenario simulating a war with the United States and/or NATO.”
NATO meanwhile focused on armored maneuvers, close air support and using special forces to counter “subversion activities” in a hypothetical attack on one of its eastern members.
ELN found: “The nature of this activity, in terms of repelling infiltration of a member state on similar lines to the early stages of the takeover of Crimea, and in terms of engaging a large conventional threat on the alliances borders of NATO, leaves Russia as the only possible adversary.”
The exercises themselves increase the risk of confrontation, ELN said, as the other side perceives even defensive actions as provocative and tries to monitor each other’s capabilities. In March 2015 there were reports of Russian Su-30 and Su-24 bombers flying close to NATO warships exercising in the Black Sea.
The study did note there was a “notable difference in scale” between Russia’s exercises, which use large numbers of conscripts, and the smaller maneuvers by NATO’s professional forces.
To diffuse tensions ELN recommended improving communication between the two sides over when exercises take place, the use of smaller and less confrontational scenarios, and for work to begin on a treaty to limit where certain weapons can be deployed.
NATO responded to the report Wednesday, saying its exercises are announced in advance and open to all observers, while criticizing Russia for avoiding similar requirements by exploiting an exception for large-scale, no-notice ‘snap’ exercises.
The alliance said it is not seeking confrontation but has increased its eastern presence to enhance collective defense in the face of “more aggressive Russian military doctrine, dangerous political rhetoric, increased military deployments and the illegal and illegitimate annexation of Crimea.”
The NATO statement criticized the ELN report for treating Russian and NATO exercises as “on a par” when “the Russian Ministry of Defense has announced over 4,000 exercises for this year, which is over 10 times more than what NATO and Allies have planned in the same timeframe.”