The West’s man in Tripoli

By Jacopo Barigazzi

The Spanish diplomat who’s trying to stop the migration crisis at its North African root.

Bernardino León breaks some of the cardinal rules of diplomacy when talking about his job in Libya: The UN special envoy admits he has a Plan B — and a Plan C — and openly acknowledges the possibility of failure.
In Europe’s epic migrant crisis Libya is the glaring weak point. Its lawless frontiers, prevailing anarchy and spreading terrorism both facilitate and drive thousands of people to the shores of the Mediterranean and onward 200 nautical miles to the Continent.

León is on a long-shot mission that might stem this human flow. The Spanish diplomat is trying to stand up a proper government and military, and restore a measure of order to a North African state beset by chaos since a revolution and NATO intervention in 2011 toppled the regime of Muammar Qadhafi.

Libyan deadlines

Libyan politics at the moment is a tale of two cities.

Last year, parliament fled Tripoli under the threat of violence from Libya Dawn, an Islamist militia group. It set up its own government in Tripoli, portraying itself as a government of national salvation.

The international community continues to recognize the fugitive assembly which re-established itself in the eastern city of Tobruk.

In both capitals, said León, there are those who “think that continuing the fight is better.” But a political solution has never been so close, added the 50-year-old envoy who is mediating between the Tobruk and Tripoli factions, most recently in Geneva.

The speculation that Europe could intervene in Libya under the UN flag adds to the sense of urgency. It is a scenario that León sounds eager to avoid: For him this is plan C, although EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, in a news conference Saturday, refused to acknowledge the existence of a plan B for Libya. Where Plan A, he explained, is a full agreement, plan B is only a partial agreement, as plan C involves the possibility to send boots on the ground.

“The idea is a civilian UN mission, maybe some police experts. But we do not think that the situation, if we have an agreement, would require boots on the grounds,” León told POLITICO in a telephone interview.

A political deal would mean “a dramatic change in migration flows” — Bernardino León.

The warring factions need to agree on joint rule of a country that, according to León, “has lost most of its capacities as a state.” He added that Libyan forces need to be trained and equipped to fight rebels allied with Islamic State that have been clashing with rival militia in Sirte on the coast, and to be able to establish control of its border crossings across the Sahara. 
“We have to be realistic, the challenges we have in Libya will not be sorted in a matter of days,” León said.
Even so, León — who was formerly the EU special representative for the Southern Mediterranean and a Spanish deputy foreign minister under Socialist prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero —  has set a September 21 deadline to form a transition government.
“If we have an agreement we will have the possibility to deal with one government to start, we would have a much better situation on the ground that would allow for a better cooperation with local authorities, so it would be a great improvement and also a dramatic change in migration flows,” he said.

On the seas off Tripoli

Migrants are crossing the Mediterranean from Libya and other countries at an unprecedented clip. Frontex, the European border control agency, estimates that last year more than 170,000 arrived in Italy alone, “representing the largest influx into one country in European Union history.” This year the total number of people crossing into Italy already numbers 110,000 and for the whole Mediterranean it is above 300,000, according to the UN refugee agency UNHCR.
The majority traveling via Libya are what EU states now call economic migrants rather than refugees, meaning they are much more likely to be sent back if detected.
Eritreans, who may be entitled to asylum in Europe because of the human rights situation in their country, make up about 27 percent of those attempting the cross. Most of the rest come from Nigeria, Somalia and Sudan, according to UNHCR, and can’t make the same claim.
This does not deter them from making a trip that’s so dangerous: About 2,500 people have died or gone missing this year in the Mediterranean and the situation began escalating dramatically at the end of April when almost 800 migrants and refugees drowned while crossing from Libya.

Oil wealth

Europe has launched a naval mission, Eunavfor Med, to combat the people smugglers. After an initial intelligence gathering phase it is now becoming operational in international waters, though diplomats fear it will prove very difficult to move to the next phase and patrol Libyan waters because they say that would require UN backing, which Russia is likely to veto at the Security Council.

One way for Eunavfor Med to get around that obstacle would be for a new Libyan unity government to ask the international community to intervene, which some EU states would take as a legitimate signal to respond without needing UN approval.

For that to happen, León must obtain some degree of harmony between the rival Libyan factions meeting in Geneva.

“We believe that there is a critical mass in support of the agreement,” he said — before immediately adding that “a partial agreement may be an option,” which would at least be an
improvement on the current situation.

“Of course, if you do not have at least 60 percent of the actors supporting the agreement, then there is not the possibility even of a partial agreement, and one has to think of all the possible alternatives.”

“If we waste time … I think that Daesh can become really strong and big in central Libya” — León.

That leads to Plan C: boots on the ground. The Spanish diplomat does not rule it out, especially in areas like the eastern coastal city of Benghazi. There, he said, the situation is “absolutely unacceptable from a security and humanitarian point of view,” and fighting could continue even if the Tobruk and Tripoli factions reach an agreement.

“Maybe we will have to think of a more robust mission possibly involving foreign military personnel,” he said, though it would require “a clear request from the new Libyan government with the umbrella of the Security Council.”

Eyeing the presence in the coastal city of Sirte of fighters from Islamic State — which he refers to by the Arabic acronym Daesh —  León warns: “If we waste time, if we do not reach soon a final solution, I think that Daesh can become really strong and big in central Libya.”

Despite the collapse of the Libyan economy since Qadhafi’s ouster, the country does have great mineral wealth. If it ever got its political act together, the UN envoy suggests, it could easily move to rebuild. Italian oil company Eni still produces about 18 percent of its daily oil and gas output in Libya, for example, and León predicts that  “reviving oil production to its old level of  1.5 million barrels a day is quite easy.”

It’s an indication of how tough León’s task is that only a year into his appointment diplomats are already speculating about who might succeed him. German diplomat Martin Kobler, who has won plaudits for his work as the UN mission chief charged with protecting civilians in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, is seen as one likely candidate.
León denies talk in diplomatic circles that he might consider resuming his political career back home in Spain, saying: “That for sure is not the case.”