The fight of Merkel’s life

By Florian Eder

Five reasons not to count Mutti out just yet.

Angela Merkel came into power in 2005. Ten years later, the German chancellor’s coalition is fraying over the issue of  how to deal with the massive influx of refugees.
The political threats seem to be mounting. Merkel’s approval ratings, once thought invulnerable, have taken a dip. The Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister party of Merkel’s CDU, threatened not to follow her any more. It has long been unthinkable that Merkel could lose control of her coalition, but for some in the CDU and CSU that spoke with POLITICO in recent days, they have begun to worry about media reports in Germany and beyond that Merkel’s end could actually be near.

They worry too much. It’s much more likely that German’s pre-eminent politician will stay right where she is — and here’s five reasons why.

1. Seehofer doesn’t really want her head

Horst Seehofer is the most powerful politician of Bavaria — again. Some months ago, he was about to lose his own grip on power, with successors lined up to take over. The migrants’ crisis brought him back as unchallenged CSU leader. 
But Bavaria is also where his power ends and his ability to cripple Merkel’s government has been fairly breathlessly overstated.
Yes, he issued an ultimatum to Merkel, telling her she’ll have to commit to somehow limit the influx of migrants by Sunday. At a coalition meeting scheduled for Sunday, Seehofer is also likely to get a pledge to improve the processing of asylum requests and distinguishing qualified applicants from those who are likely to be returned, according to CDU and CSU sources.
But that’s probably all he’ll get, which he’s likely to swallow hard and accept, given the weak bargaining position he actually occupies.
Seehofer has not denied a report that he could withdraw his party’s three federal ministers from the government. But Gerda Hasselfeldt, his lieutenant in Berlin, has said that “no one” is mulling such a decision. Neither a withdrawal nor the end of the collaboration in the Bundestag is a “helpful option,” Hasselfeldt said – the translation being that the CSU is technically not needed for Merkel to reach a majority in the parliament.
Bottom line: Breaking up the coalition would mean less power for Seehofer, not more.

2. People dislike the sheer number of refugees, not the principle of inclusion

Germans still believe that Germany has to take in refugees as a matter of principle. Asked whether it was a duty to help people seeking shelter from war and misery, some 75 percent of Germans — and 70 percent of CDU/CSU voters — said yes, according to an IFOP poll conducted in seven European countries.
There is broad consensus on that question across all political camps in Germany, the poll suggested. And there is a “Merkel effect,” as IFOP director Jérôme Fourquet noted: Poll participants who expressed a CDU/CSU preference were loyal to the chancellor in their support for her refugee policy, he said.

3. Merkel has taken action

A tough new asylum law came into force only on Saturday, one that limits financial benefits and aims to accelerate the review process for asylum applicants. Originally focused on migrants coming from Western Balkan countries, those numbers went down significantly even before the new rules were applicable.
The next target are migrants from Afghanistan who now have to be aware that German authorities will review thoroughly which region of the country they come from.
Those measures may not limit the immediate influx of people already on their way to German borders. But a more orderly way of dealing with them may calm down the mood in Bavaria, which takes the biggest share of the burden — and where the lines of communication, due to CSU’s structure, the particularly short from the local level to Seehofer’s desk.

4. There is no one in sight who could take over

Merkel has been particularly good at getting rid of heirs to her throne. A range of formerly powerful men who are one political generation younger than the 61-year-old chancellor have either left politics or lost elections, or both. Ursula von der Leyen, the defense minister, is weakened by expensive deals for armaments that proved to be dysfunctional as well as plagiarism allegations concerning her MD thesis.
Interior minister Thomas de Maizière would very likely fall along with Merkel, and the same might go for Peter Altmaier, a federal minister who serves as Merkel’s chief of staff at the chancellory. It is too early for deputy CDU leader Julia Klöckner. And probably too late for the only figure who might have the stature to take over from Merkel: finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who could rally the conservatives in the party, but is deeply controversial and also, at 73, does not quite represent a party of the future.

5. There’s no mood for change

German chancellors do not get dethroned unless there is a significant mood for change. Think of Helmut Kohl, who stayed in office too long and lost the 1998 elections. Think of Gerhard Schröder from the SPD, Merkel’s direct predecessor, who did not stay long enough, according to Merkel herself.
When presenting a biography of Schröder this summer, Merkel praised Schröder for the series of economic reforms he undertook during his term. And she let him know what she also thinks he did wrong: being too timid in defending his policy choices, giving up the party presidency, calling for early elections.
“One has to take the risk of losing the office, that’s what I call responsibility,” Schröder said at the time when asked about what makes a German chancellor a great German chancellor.

“One has to take the risk of losing the office” — Gerhard Schröder, former chancellor

Merkel has made two bets on an unknown future in her tenure so far. In 2008, after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, she guaranteed Germans’ savings to avoid a bank run. It worked.
The refugee crisis is her second Lehman Brothers moment, which she acknowledges privately, sources say. She’s clearly hoping that she’s wisely married policy choices to the mood of the German public again — without offering them a chance to kick her out of office.