Parliamentary hurdles on the way to Greek deal

By Ryan Heath

Pushing the package through the Greek parliament was only the first step.

Alexis Tsipras’ ability to muscle the proposed Greek bailout plan through the Hellenic parliament on Wednesday was not the only big Grexit question mark this week.
Other legislatures across Europe could pose a threat to the fragile deal — and in some cases to the stability of their national governments.

The biggest problem spots are likely to emerge in the Netherlands and the Baltic states, where opposition is strong to extending another financial lifeline to Greece. Finland has approved bridge financing but has been hawkish on the bailout proposal in general and will be monitoring negotiations closely. Slovenia and Slovakia could also pose a challenge. And in Germany, while the Bundestag is likely to approve the deal, it will not be without a lot of political blood being spilt.

Other countries are pre-empting public pressure by voluntarily taking the issue to parliament, as France did Wednesday. The French parliament endorsed the deal by a vote of 412-69. Spain’s Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said he would ask the country’s parliament to debate and vote on the package. 

Here is a look at the major national roadblocks ahead:

The Netherlands

With just a one-seat majority in parliament, the Dutch government could be the surprise problem in the coming days.
The parliament began debate on the package Thursday, and while the Dutch government confirmed to POLITICO that the deal doesn’t formally require a vote, “with financial aid packages the government always informs and debates with parliament.”
But there could be a problem if the ruling VVD party, which is split between an increasingly Euroskeptic right-wing faction and a moderate faction, insists on pushing a vote. This would be tantamount to a vote of no confidence in Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who has already admitted he broke an election promise by agreeing to the summit plan.
It may also expose uncomfortable divisions between Rutte and Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the newly re-elected Eurogroup chief from the other party in the ruling Dutch coalition, the Labour party. According to Dutch sources, Rutte has sensed this danger and from the moment he returned Monday to the Netherlands, he has been working to quell the dissent.
If the government fell, it would likely occur only at the end of the current Greece negotiations, when parliament is in summer recess. With a Dutch constitution requirement of at least three months notice for elections, Rutte would limp on in office until an election around Christmas deciding his fate.

Germany

For weeks, attention has focused on the hardline opposition in Germany, but the numbers in the Bundestag do not reflect this.
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition — including her Christian Democratic Union, the Bavaria-based Christian Social Union, and the Social Democrats — has 504 seats in the assembly, the opposition just 127. The Bundestag could vote as early as Friday.
But the deal could still cause disruption by forcing Merkel to devote political capital and time to managing her party instead of working with France and others to finalize the agreement.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble didn’t help matters this week when he cast doubt on the plan, claiming that many Germans would still prefer a ‘Grexit.’ Schäuble is an influential figure within the Christian Democrats and without his blessing, many conservative MP’s are unlikely to vote in favor of another rescue.

Finland

The Finnish parliament gives the government its mandate to negotiate via a “Grand Committee” of 25 MPs (out of 200 in total), and must also accept any final deal it approves. Finance Minister Alex Stubb has been so concerned about keeping the committee on-side that he popped in and out of the Eurogroup meeting Saturday to get updated mandates from the Grand Committee as the draft deal took shape.
The problems have not disappeared since the end of the summit, with MPs from the anti-euro, anti-EU Finns Party going on record that the party would “be better off out of government” rather than support a new bailout.
On Thursday, Stubb announced that the parliament had given its mandate to bridge financing for Greece and to begin negotiations on the new bailout package. The Grand Committee will meet regularly over the next month as the final text of the agreement is hammered out.

Estonia

Prime Minister Taavi Rõivas has been a reluctant supporter of a deal throughout recent negotiations, and back in Estonia Tuesday his endorsement of it was lukewarm.
He said “a small step was made to restore trust” and that Estonia “cannot accept solutions that would result in writing off debts.” That’s because Rõivas must get any final deal “approved by the plenary of the Riigikogu,” the country’s single chamber legislature, according to the parliament’s press service.
Rõivas’ coalition remains largely united in support, the country’s news agency reported Wednesday, but there is plenty of opposition in the Center, Free, and Conservatives People’s parties, which together have 42 of 101 seats in parliament.
The parliament is expected to vote Thursday.

Lithuania

The parliament’s Committee on European Affairs gathered Wednesday for a discussion on the summit outcome, while the full cabinet meets Thursday for an extraordinary meeting over the Greece crisis.

Slovenia

Prime Minister Miro Cerar left the summit early on Monday morning and handed his vote to Dutch PM Rutte, a clear sign of taking a hard-line.
He announced that there would be no third bailout with Slovenian support until parliament approved it, well aware that Slovenia has the most per capita exposure to Greek debt (Germany, by virtue of having the EU’s largest national population, has the highest total exposure).
In a sign of trouble ahead, Finance Minister Dušan Mramor said Monday the deal remains “riddled with uncertainty.”

Slovakia

Throughout the many Eurogroup talks, Slovakia’s Finance Minister Peter Kažimír has been among the most critical voices of the Greek government, saying Grexit is better than Greece becoming a “zombie state.” And Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico told journalists this week that the summit agreement “doesn’t mean that we will agree to a bailout for Greece.”
The central European country has had a turbulent history with the Greek crisis. In 2011 its parliament torpedoed an expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) after a bitter eight-hour debate that led to the collapse of the government, leading the Guardian to label the fracas “Europe waits while Slovakia Debates.”